Author Topic: Companies I didnt buy  (Read 1964 times)

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2019, 06:45:31 PM »
HSN is another company I have looked at in the past, thought they were over valued in 2015 at around $1.80 and bought DWS instead, looked at them again this week, very rough range of value around $2.60 currently $2.90.

The biggest issue is that they dont seem to be creating any organic growth, so totally reliant on roll ups to create growth. CROIC is quite high at 15% but you would expect that with a capital light software business.

A pass for me.

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2019, 06:52:53 PM »
GLB & HIT are 2 i had on watch list.

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2019, 07:55:16 PM »
As at March 2019, 14 businesses I analysed and researched to the point of considering taking a position, and chose not to. Of them 3 would have made me money, 1 of which was taken over, only 2 would have made meaningful returns. 10 would have made a loss. 1 break even.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 07:57:06 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2019, 03:15:38 PM »
SKT Sky NZ, $1.16. I think it is worth nearer $2.50 on current earnings and cash flow at a quick glance, but a fair bit of debt and consistently falling earnings put me off. A definite potential contrarian turn around play.

CROIC is not bad either, above 10%.

What would earnings have to drop to for $1 something to be fair value? My guess is under 10c EPS, thats a significant amount less than current earnings, in fact its half the guidance for 2019.

Its hard to see a near future where SKT isnt a viable business in NZ, they have 40% penatration and while the Netflixs of the world will eat away at their margins and revenue with a high quality and real NBN, as long as they have the rights for sports they will survive. So what are the odds of sport going to streaming? Well I dont think its happened on a national scale anywhere in the world so far, but it could happen.

The Rugby world cup should give them a bump in revenue for first half 2020, NZ is such a rugby mad country and the World cup is in Japan in October.

The market hated the impairment writedown last year, and I would imagine there are more of them to come, so that is a potential negative,

On the upside a price of $2.50 is not a stretch if they meet guidance, so probalistically, maybe a 10% chance of sport moving totally to streaming seeing a collapse of the business , 10% * 0 =0 plus a 20% chance they meet guidance & impair again, 20% * $1 = 20c plus a 60% chance they meet guidance, no impairment and market rerates - 60% * $2 = $1.20 and 10% chance they exceed and market rewards 10% * $2.50 = 25c for a total expectancy of $1.65
- which is a reasonable return.

Trouble is this sort of calculation is so wooly, I could easily modify, 10% * 0, 50% * $1.20 (no change) , 20% * $2, 10% * $2.50 for a total of $1.25 - about where it is now.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 04:14:06 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2019, 03:31:19 PM »
EOS

Makes military hardware and also positioned for space expansion. Biggest negative was discovvering Fred Bart was Chairman, I saw his work at Audio Pixels and thats enough to put me off! Also huge gap between reported NPAT & FCF, book a profit, no sign of cash flow.

3/5/19 $3.30

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2019, 12:03:05 PM »
EAS an accounting services business that I had my attention drawn to by Matt Brazier, https://www.mattbrazierinvestmentdiary.com/2019/05/easton-investments-limited-asxeas.html#more and his linking to DX Capital report, https://www.dmxam.com.au/10_04_2019_easton_investments_limited_asx_eas_.html

Its currently trading at about 97c and in a quick look I couldn't see that it was at any discount to value even allowing for some pretty good growth, I can see them making about 6c EPS this full year, which would give them a value round 80c, even if they manage to double the EPS to 12c in the next couple of years I only see a value of around $1-60 so I couldn't get much enthusiasm for the business.

I also could only see single digit ROIC, which is a bit low for my liking.



galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2019, 03:42:00 PM »
PNV, the spinoff from CSIRO with the burns and wound mesh platform, great product, just about breakeven, but with 600m shares on issue I reckon it would need NPAT of over $50m to be anywhere near fair value at the $1 something price it is now. Thats a big ask.

galumay

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Re: Companies I didnt buy
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2019, 12:34:38 PM »
VOR, KPG PPK & SIT all go on the list, PPK & SIT because i hold indirectly thru EPG fund and I dont want to be too corelated, VOR  I just couldnt find conviction to buy & KPG has too much debt.

PPK $4.50 VOR 0.012c KPG $1.03 & SIT 0.069 oct 30 19
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 12:39:50 PM by galumay »