seekrit squirrel

Finance => Shares => Topic started by: galumay on July 30, 2019, 05:59:13 PM

Title: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on July 30, 2019, 05:59:13 PM
CCP

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Another solid year from CCP, nice touches in the report like not breaking out the cost of capital raising earlier in the year, or normalising EPS with it, just honest accounting, take it straight off the bottom line. Guidance is probably typical under promise and over deliver, the guidance for this year was about half the final outcome. Happy to continue holding.

LPE 4C

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Well, cash flow positive if you are only looking at operating cash flow, free cash flow still negative, guidance for next quarter disturbing, huge jump in Opex and a 40% jump in staff & admin costs. Customer growth slow to tranlate to profit.

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Will keep holding, but its a low conviction hold and I certainly would not increase position.

The AR only confirmed that things are not going well with LPE, continuing increasing losses, negative cash flow, failure to get anywhere near guidance.
I continue to be a reluctant holder, low conviction, suspicion around management competence.



Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on July 30, 2019, 06:03:32 PM
AER  4C

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Here is a 4C to love, OCF that drops straight to FCF! Not a single financing or investing expence, thats a capital light business model.

If the FCF stayed at about that level for the full year, FCF would be around $120km for the year, which is about 0.2c per share and would give a range of value above 2c per share.

Will try to accumulate a bigger postion, but it wont be easy!

AR was less impressive, AR out today, nothing to get excited about, progress is in the right direction and when you back out the $1/2m R&D refund from last years results its more attractive, but AER will need some decent growth in revenue now to realise the potential in the business. The good thing is that any growth from here will pretty much fall straight through to the bottom line.
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 12:46:16 PM
CDA

Another stellar set of numbers from CDA, such a good little business now.

Highlights:

 Record sales of $271 million

 Record statutory net profit after tax of $45.7 million

 Annual dividend of 9.0 cents, fully franked (interim 4.0, final 5.0)

 Annual special dividend of 5.0 cents, fully franked (interim 2.5, final 2.5)

 Base-business sales re-rated to $200-220 million, up from $180-200 million

 Base-business NPAT re-rated to $28-33 million, up from $25-30 million

 Strong balance sheet continues $37.5 million net cash

Wish i hadn't sold some over the years, also wish i had bought more!
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 12:50:43 PM
GLB

GLB is a business i discovered while turning over microcaps rocks earlier this year and I took a smallish initial postition. The AR released today wasn't as good as I hoped, but I still see a significant discount to value in the current price so I have decided to stay invested, I won't increase my position at this point in time, but happy to continue holding.
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 12:52:32 PM
SRG

Well that turned into a train wreck, one I got entirely wrong, the merger with SRG has completely destroyed the value in what was a good business in GCS. Profit gone, FCF turned negative. Going back to see where I got it so wrong, first feeling is that I knew GCS pretty intimately and given what a good little business it was, I assumed the merger would create some scale and actually make a better business. Instead the opposite happened and there has been significant destruction of value.

One of the few bad reports this year.
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 12:54:00 PM
JYC

Another little business I have held for a while now, another solid year with pleasing results for the FY released today. Will look to accumulate some more if the price settles after the euphoria of the AR!
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 12:59:32 PM
SDI

Its been a long and patient ride to see this play out, the conviction came from the financial strength, low debt, niche market, founders with skin in the game etc.

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 01:05:16 PM
KME

Another stellar year for KME, one of my higher conviction positions. Will look to accumulate the dips

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 01:09:34 PM
LBL

LBL released their AR and results exceeded both guidance and market expectations, jumping nearly 20%. Its great to see a well researched, high conviction position play out as I had hoped. My strategy of averaging up as I saw the business executing has paid off very well.

It is approaching my range of IV now, so I probably won't increase position unless there is further evidence of organic growth.

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:23:36 PM
NWH

Another stellar year for NWH, results inline with expectations, NPAT dropped from PRP, but NWH went from having significant tax losses to use last year, to paying significant tax this year, so not unexpected. Cash flow remain strong, capital management is positive as well, structural debt soon be zero and only debt will be asset leases. Mr Market liked the result.

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:27:54 PM
MYX

Another poor year with large impairments. A long play!

Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:31:37 PM
SFC

SFC released their AR this week and while revenue was down a bit in the leather sector, cost reductions meant the drop in profit was smaller. The share price dropped back about 10% and I took the opportunity to build my position a bit more, I continue to see the leather business alone as justifying the current price with the significant property portfolio and the small concrete cladding business for nothing. Happy to accumulate the (rare) dips.

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:36:44 PM
SRV

Looks like a fairly poor result but impairments of nearly $20m distort the picture, profitable, no debt, a business I paid far too much for, but eventually may come good!

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:39:56 PM
SXE

Good result for SXE posted today, missed their revenue guidance slightly but all metrics up strongly, looks like the Heyday acquisition has bolted on well. Good execution from management. May look to accumulate

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:42:08 PM
TGR

TGR released AR today and also went into a TH pending a CR for expansion of the prawn farming part of the business. First glance the results look great with significant higher margin growth coming from the prawns. Happily retail investors get a chance at the CR, although given the company's performance in the past year, I suspect we will be heavily scaled back! Will participate

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 28, 2019, 02:45:15 PM
SND

Well its been a rough couple of years for SND and the pain continues for shareholders this year! I have them in the bottom drawer and hopefully the turnaround story will play out over the next couple of years. One of my few dogs!
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 29, 2019, 12:52:56 PM
REH

REH released their AR late yesterday afternoon, I didnt think it was all that good to say the least, revenue up 100% but a slight drop in earnings. Seems like borrowing and capital raising $1b to buy Moresco has generated barely any return on capital! Shareholder returns look even worse via the dilution as eps drops over 20%.

The market has not marked REH down for the result, so it must be confident the payoff will eventuate!

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Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 31, 2019, 09:20:27 AM
ICU

A bad error of judgement! This is now my worst holding. AR out very late, a loss that has increased by 2994% is impressive in scale, if nothing else! Looks like about 18 months to 2 years of cash left, slow burn and fiery death methinks! Everyone needs at least one total dog i guess.
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 31, 2019, 09:21:36 AM
VRS

another sad year for VRS, luckily my position is tiny and who knows, one day they might turn it around.

If you were looking for a positive, I guess its the free cash flow which was put to use in reducing debt.
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 31, 2019, 09:25:18 AM
ODDS & SODS

So stuff I didnt bother looking at in any detail, AHZ a suspended basket case of stupidity on my part. The lesson learnt the hard way, dont average down into biotechs especially when they dont have any profit.

PAR is a biotech play and the balance sheet is irrelevant, its a binary bet on a single product, hence a small position size.

A number of others report on the calendar year, so nothing from DDR, PPH, TNE, UOS
Title: Re: FY 18-19 ARs
Post by: galumay on August 31, 2019, 09:28:54 AM

So far to date in the SMSF 9 good results, (+4 that report calendar year all had good 1/2y)  6 ok but not great, and 2 poor, 2 not rated (KPT & PAR) - by far the best results in the 5 years of the SMSF.