seekrit squirrel
Finance => Shares => Topic started by: galumay on September 24, 2017, 12:26:23 PM
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Update for 16/17, this one is a tricky one, I have concerns about the business long term, especially due to structural and legislative changes and the potential of the housing bubble popping - but on the other hand, the returns from dividends have been fantastic - in 4 years of holding we have earnt a 50% return in gross divvies.
Also very good result this year, revenue only up 1.1% but earnings grow by 13% - always nice to see, although FCF growth was more aligned with revenue growth.
My range of IV is between $2.90 & $3.80 so I will reassess if the price reaches $2.50 this year.
HY1 18 another consistent half year for MOC, i continue to consider the risk with the property bubble in Australia, my comments above remain true, anything over $2.50 and I will revisit my thesis for holding.
FY 2018 held up ok, rising clouds not e horizon, question is can they transform themselves from mortgage brokers into financial advisors? This is probably the only opportunity for growth for this business.
I am tempted to sell, but divvies are mounting up and if they can and do transform it could be interesting.
H1 19 - Not a pretty report, hardly surprising given the soft property market, change in fee structure and finally the banking RC. Signs of life in the FA sector, I think its best to assume the worst with the core mortgage broking sector and assume it tails off to zero over the next 5 years, what is left will be the FA and whatever value that has. Should have sold long ago.
click here to view older commentary (http://www.galumay.com.au/forum/index.php?topic=15.0#post_MOC)
price taker, no moat