Recent Posts

Pages: 1 ... 7 8 [9] 10
81
Shares / Re: EGN
« Last post by galumay on June 13, 2023, 03:19:58 PM »
Very nice announcement from EGN today, secured a joint venture with Rio to bring local iron ore rail car manufacturing and bearing maintenance to the Pilbara region in an industry-first. Shares up nearly 30% on the news. Happy hodler!
 
A great example of pure good luck providing a positive outcome rather than my research & analysis! This was definitely a white swan event!

[ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
82
Shares / Re: KOV
« Last post by galumay on June 07, 2023, 04:24:42 PM »
Well things turned out better than anyone expected!

[ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
83
General Discussion / Re: Decision Journal
« Last post by galumay on June 07, 2023, 08:03:07 AM »
Something I have battle with for a while is trying to displace decisions with habits. The idea is that decisions are 'expensive' in terms of mental energy, time, decision quality and distraction from other tasks, so if you can replace as many decisions as possible with habits then you can make better decisions and limit them to important issues really requiring decisions. Steve Jobs making a habit of always wearing the same type of clothes is a very basic example.

My battle is interesting, I find it relatively easy to turn decisions into habits with positive things, so I have made a habit of cleaning the group head every time I pull a coffee, and keeping the workspace around the coffee machine clean, these were fairly easy and are now embedded in my habitual behaviour. Its the negative habits that are harder to make stick for me, so NOT eating between meals is my current battle, I have many times told myself I am going to make it a habit and failed many times! I have considered 2 strategies, one is to invert the negative decisions, so try to make it a habit to only eat at meal times! The second is this - write about it. 2 days ago I just posted my thoughts about negative versus positive habits (maybe better phrased as doing or not doing habits), and I have had more success with not snacking between meals than ever in the past! Its well known that making commitments in writing makes them much easier to uphold so it may be as simple as this, I figure doubling down here can only help!
84
Thoughts and Ideas / When price gets too high!
« Last post by galumay on May 31, 2023, 06:38:00 AM »
[ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
85
General Discussion / Re: Things People Say...
« Last post by galumay on May 31, 2023, 06:36:21 AM »
As Oscar Wilde said, “Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.”
86
General Discussion / Re: Decision Journal
« Last post by galumay on May 16, 2023, 08:09:03 PM »
Looking at buying a car to replace either or both of our existing cars. I have been thinking for a while about purchasing a car to replace the troopy & or hilux in the future as we move into retirement for both of us. I think we need a 4wd for towing and occasional off road work, but not something with the capability of the troopy. The Troopy is 37 years old and needs quite a lot of upkeep to keep it on the road. Its hard for Sal to drive so not an ideal only car, the hilux is 20 years old, quite rusty in parts and not 4wd so not suitable as our only car.

We dont need something yet, but I have been researching what would be suitable and settled on a twin cab, Volkswagen Amarok 4WD with the 2.0L engine. I actually found a good cheap ($25,000 for 2005 model) one in Darwin, in White, which i want for the tropics, but we decided we didn't need it yet and by the time we did it would be a couple of years older so we decided not to buy it. Then a very well specced one came up in Gove, for about $25k as well, but it was in dark blue and a 2014 model, after talking with Sal we decided once again to give it a miss, mainly because it was a dark colour.

I am now down in Melbourne seeing mum and I thought I should see what is available here, and came across a private sale of a 2019 model, in white, no bull bar and standard tyres, with 171k km. Its a lot of k's for a 4 year old car, but they are all highway miles, from daily drive geelong to melbourne.  So not really an issue and we will add very few miles. If I can get it for $25k or under its a very cheap car - price range is $28k to $32k. It also has an alloy tray which is probably a detractor from value but I actually prefer. I think if I could get it for under $25 and ship it to darwin it would be a very good buy, $2k to get it to darwin and then bring it home when I go over in August.

Really the only question is, is it worth buying sooner than we need it? The reasons to say yes are, I am actually already here to look at them, so it saves a fare to inspect a car at a later date, I already have to come to darwin in August and dont have to pay the airfare so could drive it home then, i doubt we would ever find a 4 year old car like this for $25k again, its white, has a tray and under 200k kms.

The reasons to say no are, the two cars we still have are both operational still, so wait until we actually need a new car, maybe an even better deal will come up, maybe a white one will come up at home.

I am going to have a look at it tomorrow.

[ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Ended up buying this Amarok, it checked out with a full service record from VW, it was a one owner car, he bought it new in June 2019 on finance thru VW, no write off history and looked in very good conition as expected given the history. I was able to buy it for $24k inc GST, so the real cost was about $21800. Cost me $2750 to get it to Darwin, and as I said we are flying over in August at no cost to us, so I will drive it home then. In the end I found the price to overweigh any concerns I had about buying it now, I really doubt I would find one that was better value in the future.

The decision we now have to make is whether to sell the troopy or Sal's ute, but we will wait until we have the Amarok here to make that decision.
87
Shares / Re: HLG:NZX
« Last post by galumay on May 01, 2023, 05:55:29 PM »
Full HY report out this week, one thing I missed in the earlier update that was interesting to read was $HLG.NZX comments around their online sales - basically halved since the end of lockdowns. (Overall sales up very strongly). Customers still prefer B&M for clothing, despite all the hype about online marketing.

Price has recovered strongly back to mid $6 from low $5 range, I am reminded that its much easier to hold great businesses through cycles without worrying about capital security. Although HLG ended up a lot cheaper than I paid, I was unconcerned as I believed it would be fine and once retail bounced back it would be a stong benificiary.
88
General Discussion / Re: Things People Say...
« Last post by galumay on April 22, 2023, 11:35:43 AM »
"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men trying to find easier ways to do something."
~Robert Heinlein
89
General Discussion / Re: Things People Say...
« Last post by galumay on April 01, 2023, 11:48:11 AM »
"Sometimes the best investments are the ones you dont make."

Possibly the only intelligent comment ever made by Donald Trump. Although likely stolen from someone else.
90
Shares / TPC
« Last post by galumay on March 30, 2023, 10:11:39 AM »
Started having a look at this business, micro cap, very tightly held, top 20 hold nearly 85%, very illiquid. At a glance looks interesting, its a supplier of  retail electricity and gas services to residential and business customers in Australia. Financials are a bit messy to work out, quite a bit of hedging of energy & currency, impacts the balance sheet and P&L in a distorting way. It does seem to be quite a lumpy business, FCF has been all over the place which makes it hard to value. ROIIC is quite good at around 15% and EV/Sales makes it look undervalued, but operating cushion is low, at 5% so its only turning $1 of sales into 5c of FCF.

Its a bit too lumpy and complicated for my liking, maybe one to watch as it may be able to flatten its performance in time. Very hard to build a position too, so would need strong conviction to buy in.

$2.50 on 30/3/23
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 [9] 10