Author Topic: Investment Wisdom from Others  (Read 3869 times)

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2016, 11:42:21 AM »
Tony Hansen from EGP,

"A business that is trying to build scale should show characteristics of operating leverage, or in simple terms, a 10% increase in revenue should lead to more than a 10% increase in profits for the business."

(particularly relevant in roll ups - SGH!)

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2017, 11:09:35 AM »
Idea from http://www.givernycapital.com/en/doc/206/Giverny_Capital_-_Annual_Letter_2015_web_.pdf

I will work to adding this measure to my benchmarking.

Since 1996, we have presented a chart depicting the growth in the intrinsic value of our companies using a measurement developed by Warren Buffett: “owner’s earnings”. We arrive at our estimate of the increase in intrinsic value of our companies by adding the growth in earnings per share (EPS) of our entire group of companies and the average dividend yield of the portfolio. We believe that this analysis is not exactly precise but approximately correct. In the non-scientific world of the stock market, we believe in the old saying: “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”

galumay

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galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2017, 07:42:35 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/the-investing-secrets-of-hedge-fund-legend-seth-klarman.html

1. Analyze the potential for loss before gain: "You want to focus on risk before you focus on returns. … A lot of it is focusing on multiple scenarios, what can go wrong? How much can you lose?"

2. Absolute over relative returns: "The world is oriented to relative performance. Everybody is an asset gatherer. ... By contrast we think wealthy individuals and established institutions because of their risk aversion are interested in absolute returns. If you're focused on absolute returns the idea of losing people's money becomes fairly abhorrent. … Your goal is not to lose less, your goal is to try to make money all the time, protect capital on the downside and still do well enough on the upside."

3. Forget macro investing, instead focus on individual investment ideas: "Most of the investment world has a top down orientation. They think about how is the economy going to do? And how are foreign currencies going to do? How are interest rates going to do? … My view is that is incredibly difficult to do. I don't know anybody with a really good long-term demonstrated record of success of macro forecasting."

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2018, 11:03:05 AM »
Worth reading the whole article, but this is the gist of it, http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/future-self/

Quote
An underpinning of psychology is that people are poor forecasters of their future selves. There is all kinds of research backing this up. Imagining a goal is easy and fun. Imagining a goal in the context of the realistic life stresses that grow with competitive pursuits is hard to do, and miserable when you can.

This impacts business and investing, where most actions require not just anticipating rewards, but anticipating how you’ll react to future challenges.

The whole idea of investing risk is imagining a future filled with potholes and assuming you will either see it coming and avoid it – “I won’t be greedy” – or anticipating your ability to accept and exploit it – “I’ll see it as an opportunity.”

I’m here to tell you: This is really hard to do. And it bedevils our decision-making.

Best Buy stock is up more than Amazon stock in the last five years.

Blackberry stock is up more than Apple stock in the last four years.

Hawaiian Airlines stock is up more than Facebook stock over the last five years.

If you’re surprised by these numbers it’s because it’s natural to think in away that follows the most logical path of least resistance. Here that means assuming outcomes are driven by underlying events. Apple’s products have done well. Best Buy’s services have not. The investing outcome should look the same.

What this misses – and this is as obvious as it is easy to forget – is that investing outcomes are driven not just by business results, but business results within the context of expectations. Five years ago we expected nothing from Best Buy and everything from Apple. So Best Buy gets a bigger trophy for showing up to the game than Apple gets for being MVP.

The point is it’s easy to oversimplify a forecast because important context can be counterintuitive and easy to ignore.

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2018, 05:31:42 PM »
This article by Peter Guy is great reading for an analysis of big v small in the context of SMSF's v large industry funds, it also covers issues with ETF's.


https://theconstantinvestor.com/big-versus-small/

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2018, 05:32:43 PM »
A fabulous commentary by Seth Klarman, a few page PDF which is basically all you need to know about investing!

http://1-2knockout.typepad.com/12_knockout/files/Seth_Klarman_MIT_Speech.pdf

galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2018, 09:14:11 PM »
from Morgan Housel's presentation to Ian Cassel's MicroCap Club, a few graphics that caught my eye,







Here is the whole presentation if you are interested,


galumay

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Re: Investment Wisdom from Others
« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2020, 01:21:25 PM »
https://www.longriverinv.com/blog/the-practice-of-value-investing-by-li-lu

Particularly good in defining speculating v investing