CAB NWH SND MOC TGA CDA MMSB ANZ AHZ SIP ITD ICU VOC VRS Overall strategy -
1.) Assess Catastrophic Risk
2.) Check FCF per share
3.) Check MoS & FA
4.) Check IV with formula
5.) Check other metrics, p/s, M/B, PEG, P/E, interest cover, debt/equity
Share - CABCabcharge 30/5/13 $3.91
Rationale for buying - changes in Gv. legislation caused price to fall from $5 a week ago to a low of $3.85 today - nearly 25% Yield remains strong, earnings last year 35c ps which if maintained will see a yield of 9.4% before grossing up for franking.
I believe the market has greatly overestimated the impact of the legislative changes and better than average yield will be able to be maintained based on other business segments (buses etc), and limited medium term impact of changes.
Even if earnings halved and payout was cut to 17c per share, yield would still be better than 4.5% before the effect of franking.
EXIT STRATEGY -
a) if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $3.85
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
3 Month update - No surprises in AR, slow growth, will need to pick up next year, good yield still. dividend dropped 5c to 30c per share, still yield is 7.5% before franking.
UPDATE OCT- hit $6 in sept, remains susceptible to market, competitive and legislative change, considered selling at $6 but will reassess this year.
CAT RISK - Cant identify one, legislative risk only reduces profitability.
TYPE - Stalwart
HY 2015 update - negative result, revenue and profit down as impact of cc levy hits. still very profitable though
FY16 update as above.
end 2016 update Sold at a loss to deploy capital elsewhere. Should have sold when they were round $6. Missed opportunity.
2017 update, company still going to the dogs, revenue down, npat down, everything down....except the special 80c dividend! It is trading around $4 so it will be interesting to see where it ends up ex-div. might have missed an opportunity here.
Share - NWH31/5/13 $1.14
Rationale for buying - Contrarian, over selling of Mining services co’s, NWH the best of them on balance sheet, fwd contracts, civil work, boom may be over, mining continues, great yield, even if profit halves this year.
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $1.15
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
NOTE - these dropped to well under a dollar, a stop loss would have seen me out at a loss. .85c 1/7/13 probably should have averaged down.
3 month update - notes hold true, AR was better than market expectations, price now finally starting to hold above my entry, looking good going forward.
UPDATE OCT- continue to suffer from the negative sentiment about mining services companies, i continue to believe that its not just exploration and the ‘boom’ that kept these guys in business, all mining companies use contractors in all stages of their business. NWH remain one of the best of the crop, will take the drop in share price and hold for yield.
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Cyclical
HY 2015 update - Very poor, dividend suspended, contract dispute at Roy Hill with Samsung, long term turnaround here!
FY16 update turned the corner, no divvy yet, but looking good. Should have averaged down more.
End 2016 update Still recovering well, definitely made a big misjudgment not averaging down - did so in the SMSF and made good money on the bounce.
H1 2017 UPDATE - Continuing to do well, getting close to being break even, divvy likely next half
Share - SND21/06/13 0.73
Rationale for buying - Long term on the watch list, solid company, illiquid due to directors holding 65% of company, good fwd contracts, good yield, continuing demand for their skills due to legislative and safety requirements, well managed,
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $0.73
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
NOTE -
3 Month update - Have really taken off, up about 30% on my entry, solid AR, plenty of work on books, dividend of 5c is about 6.9% before franking
UPDATE OCT - all good news, a great pick
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Cyclical
HY 2015 update - Not great news, business slowing with the cycle, still doing ok though.
FY16 update as above.
End 2016 update as above
H1 2017 UPDATE - Still struggling, acquired a bridge builder to diversify business, may be the catalyst for growth - or the slow decline of the business!
Share - MOC24/6/13 $2.16
Rationale for buying - Thought they represented value entry into financial lending services, good yield, probably the yield was the strongest attraction, ANZ was the alternative but MOC had dropped more with the late june slide in the market and i couldnt resist, i think they have prospects for growth, will need to watch closely
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $2.16
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
NOTE - Maybe missed the bottom at $2.13
3 Month update - very happy, started moving strongly, still up over 15% from entry despite being a very soft after the AR which was OK, but maybe below expectations. have been as high as $2.75 which was 30% up! (mistake in presser of double the actual divvy may have played a part.) Div is 13c which is over 6% before franking.
UPDATE OCT - have been over $3.00, another strong pick in my portfolio, happy to hold
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Stalwart
HY 2015 update - Good result.
FY16 update nice run up this year, strong result
End 2016 update Price has recovered some more. Back in profit on this one.
H1 2017 UPDATE - further strength, good yield, steady growth
click here to view newer commentaryShare - TGARationale for buying - Like the business model, believe they will do well in a downturn, management looking to develop the business, good yield, solid management, some moat with an established market in a niche area
EXIT STRATEGY - same as above
NOTE - happy at the price i got in
3 Month update - good numbers in AR, increased dividend, held up well in difficult year, looking good!
UPDATE OCT - havent seen the growth i expected, but solid earner and i believe it will show growth in the longer term
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - High Growth
HY 2015 update - due in May
FY16 update End 2016 update Been a tough year, should have averaged down, but price has recovered to around $1.90
H1 2017 UPDATE - hanging in there, pretty flat half, looking for more growth next half.
Share - CDA
Rationale for buying - dropped 20% on back of annual report, i felt they were already priced for the earlier profit warning, good yield, good long term prospects
EXIT STRATEGY - Watch financials closely, they need to recover and expand business
NOTE - dropped further but by next day had recovered past my entry, missed low of about $1.73
I averaged down twice with CDA, in originally at $1.85, at 97c and 65c for an average of $1.30
UPDATE OCT - continue to disappoint! price has plenty of downward momentum, have used CDA to reinvest dividends this year to average down. Need to see what this years annual report brings before reassessing this one
UPDATE FEB - Half yearly report shows strong turnaround, looks like the worst is past and SP should recover from here.
UPDATE AUG - Full year results, looks like the business has really turned around, all looks good for a recovery in the SP and should finally see some profit!
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Stalwart
HY 2015 update - good result, turnaround, new products, share price slowly recovering
FY16 update Finally in the black! Great tunaround
End 2016 update Further confirmation of the turnaround story. Up around $2 now
H1 2017 UPDATE - booming along, massive spike in growth, looking very strong
continues hereShare - MMSRationale for buying - Initially as a spec on the back of the collapse of the share price from $18 to $7 after KRudd announced changes to tax law, reassessed as a value position after clear Libs would win and looking at fundamentals again.
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $9
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
d) If after 12 months i dont see any long term prospects (minimise CGT)
NOTE - Changed from Spec to FA, still a solid company, hold for medium term at least, revisit after election and then after 12 months (CGT)
CAT RISK - Cant see any
UPDATE OCT - Has turned into a good long term hold.
TYPE - Stalwart
HY 2015 update - all good
FY16 update bit soft this time, but still doing ok
End 2016 update ticking along, starting to think about using the capital elsewhere
H1 2017 UPDATE - steady growth, 3-4%
click here to view newer commentaryShare - ANZRationale for buying - Best buy of the big four
EXIT STRATEGY - i am moving away from even having one, buy and hold.
NOTE -
UPDATE OCT - happy with purchase, continues to perform well.
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Slow Grower
HY 2015 update - all good
FY16 update what can i say, its a bank!
End 2016 update Out for a small loss, could have made a profit if i had hung on a bit longer, but put capital into VOCShare - AHZRationale for buying - initial 2 positions pure speccy, small position size ($2k) reflects the fact they are not paying a divvy and may collapse if results arent as good as hoped. Huge upside if their products take off in europe.
EXIT STRATEGY -
Change in view of future prospects
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
NOTE - Made my first stupid and rash decision, looking for opportunity after the market downturn in reaction to US lockdown I jumped in and put $10K into them, my thought was to look for a short term trade to try ROE’s strategy. This was poorly thoughtout, while the price had dropped, it was still higher than either of my earlier positions, i didnt calculate what price i would need to make a suitable profit, its crazy to use this strategy on a speccy, massive risk, too bigger a position. Must sell as soon as i can cover entry.
mentally i think i just was desperate and impatient to try a new thing - the trading idea ROE had explained for me, in the end i was so impatient i just jumped on the first possible way to apply it with no proper consideration. PATIENCE.
Lesson - main mistake was FOMO (fear of missing out)
TYPE - Spec
HY 2015 update - all good, moving towards being a profitable company, next result should tell the story, bought for SMSF
FY16 update On track for profit in 2018. awaiting vaccine trial results Q4
End 2016 update as above.
H1 2017 UPDATE - the good news keeps coming, revenues growing, losses shrinking, still on target for profit and hopefully take off!
Share - SIPRationale for buying - Buying a dip in the price on the back of US shutdown, a solid company with restructure after difficult times, good yield, no debt, poor result last year already over factored by market
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $0.57
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
NOTE -
UPDATE OCT - star performer of the portfolio
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Turnaround?
HY 2015 update - actually EFY for SIP, great result, powering on
End 2016 update Still going strong
H1 2017 UPDATE - will be full year for SIP
click here to view newer commentaryShare - ITDRationale for buying - Tip from ROE, looked at the financials and liked what i saw, usual attractions, solid business, low debt, high yield, good earnings. Very illiquid, tightly held by management. Had an order for 0.30 which seemed to be the point of resistence but order was filled same day.
EXIT STRATEGY -
if yield drops below bank interest rate & share price over $0.30
if money can get a better return elsewhere with better growth potential.
if shares increase 100% sell half for free profit.
NOTE -
UPDATE OCT - took a dive after i bought, finally turned the corner and building some upwards momentum, fundamentals remain strong
FEB UPDATE - very strong H1 15 result, great growth. now for the SP to follow!
JUNE 15 UPDATE - ended up being a tough year with cash flow impacted by high inventory and costs associated with aquisitions, projects and the relocation of the malaysian production base. It makes the figures look poor from a FCF point of view but I think the business has the chance to grow strongly next year if things progress normally. Next ½ yearly will tell the tale.
CAT RISK - Cant see any
TYPE - Fast Grower?
HY 2015 update - see above
FY16 update Still in the doldrums, this company has disappointed, hopefully this year will see some growth.
End 2016 update Finally seeing some growth in the SP, back in the black for this one.
H1 2017 UPDATE - fantastic half, we are off and running now, another turnaround story, real growth now
click here to view newer commentaryShare - ICURationale for buying - short term trade
EXIT STRATEGY - 10% growth
NOTE -
End 2016 update crap decision, I have never had any success short term trading, time to stop trying!
H1 2017 UPDATE - still a crap decision
Share - VOCRationale for buying - smashed by market after upgrade to forecasts, thought it was undervalued
EXIT STRATEGY -
NOTE -
End 2016 update missed the bottom, but no cause for concern
H1 2017 UPDATE - great result, another good buying decsion, in profit and looking good.
Share - VRSRationale for buying - Good little roll up business, well managed, tightly held,
EXIT STRATEGY -
NOTE -
End 2016 update down a bit, doing ok though
H1 2017 UPDATE - shocker, I missed something here! At least its very low debt and cash in hand, hopefully can recover.
FY 2017 UPDATE - I really did iss something here!! What a crocker, mystified as to what my reasoning was, numbers did look good at the end of 2016 - but their major income project was coming to an end (Nauru) which I completely missed. Really poor research and decision making.click here to view newer commentary
