Author Topic: Decision Journal  (Read 7098 times)

galumay

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Decision Journal
« on: April 24, 2015, 12:48:53 PM »
I recently read about the value of having a decision journal to record the thought processes behind decisions, the risk analysis involved, the predictions of outcomes etc so that one can check whether outcomes are the result of correct/good decisions or inspite of them.

Its possible to have a good outcome, but the reason for the outcome was luck, not a good decision, eaually one can have a bad outcome, but the decsion was still a good decision!

Anyway, I thought it worth giving it a shot so here is my decision journal!

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2015, 12:49:31 PM »
13/4/2015

Bought $9500 NWH shares, they are the worst performer in the SMSF, falling from $1 to 20c, the rationale is to follow a set strategy, reinvest returns in the worst performing company to average down.

The strategy relies on there being no holdings which should have been sold out of on FA, NWH sails close here, dividend suspended, victim of the massive downturn in the sector and disputed contract at Roy Hill with Samsung. In the end its a contrarian position, and therefore its consistent with the strategy to invest cash flow from dividends into it.

I predict that there will more than likely be a +ve outcome from the samsung issue this month, impairment has already been taken and 0 profit written to the project, dividend suspended, good news on the outcome will see a strong rebound and with an average entry of 42c now its foreseeable that I will be back in the black this year.

If I am wrong, no or bad news on samsung issue, continued depressed business case, debt covenants come into play, potential for further downside. A longer wait for turnaround.

If I am absolutely wrong, catastrophic risk becomes real and total loss is possible.

Reflections for today, flat battery on the car again, it now looks like the passenger door not shutting properly caused the interior light to stay on and drain the new battery! I now think this was the cause of the old battery being flat, and dying. It must have been dead because it actually got worse rather than better with the 20 minute drive, whereas the new one today charged up in a 10 minute drive.

I also realise now that I made a poor judgement with buying the car, as the $800 cambelt replacement shows. I had a concern about it from the start but let the owners talk me out of getting a mechanic to check it - which in all liklihood would have drawn attention to it. The error was FOMO. Also some psychological thing going on with bias there, not wanting to push too hard with nice young couple,(social bias), trusting them because he was a teacher, (authority bias).

Interestingly sometimes FOMO is the right feeling! Last night with booking the flat in Istanbul feels like that, only 4 weeks till we get there, vacancy rate low, only property in the price range available, if I had stuffed round too long maybe cost us a lot of money? The other interesting decision is to deal directly with the owner, I didnt really save much, maybe $100, some risk remains that we will be ripped off, although I think its very small, the guy has a valid FB page, has 2 flats in the property rented thru different agencies, everything was consistent name, details, bank details etc. I think there is a point to be made for having slowed the process down a bit more, taken a bit longer to make a decision and booking thru the agencies to mitigate the minor risk.

I predict that it will work out fine, and in fact the way we engaged may well lead to a strong personal relationship to our benefit when we arrive.

My prediction was correct, Serdar has become a true friend and everything was perfect with the apartment

If I am wrong, we will lose money, have significant short term stress and waste time - for what would have only been a saving of $100 anyway!!
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 11:22:23 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2015, 12:50:48 PM »
23/4/15

Bought 25000 AHZ for the SMSF @ 8c

I bought into AHZ because I think this may be the last chance to by them cheaply before the price takes off on the back of real profit in the business. Its a bit of a speculation because we havent seen the results since they have increased sales and maybe costs have also increased, but the reward could be large if they turn into a profitable pharma.

Risk is a poor result will see them hang around the sub-10c mark, upside on good results is very large. The range of outcomes is probably still from zero in that there is still some catostrophic risk there, but the upside is probably north of 50c even with current capital structure.

My prediction is that once the next 4c is released, AHZ will never be 8c again.


Well, never say never, despite all good news in the 4c and subsequent news, as of 21/9/15 they are languishing at 0.066!

AHZ continues to wallow, has had a 1 for 10 consolidation and is now trading at 43c - or 4.3c in the old structure

Still looks like a poor decision - trading at 33c now or 3.3 in the old structure. I stand by my confidence in this speccy and have put more money into it in both portfolios. I dont mind the timing being wrong, as long as I am eventually right!

Oct 31, 2017 (another year on)Well they are under 25c now - or 2.5c in the old structure!! Patience is an essential virtue for investors!!
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 07:41:40 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2015, 02:15:20 PM »
25/4/15

Looking at a company called ICU that a friend who runs a small investment fund has been discussing, this is what he had to say,

Quote
At the 14c price today, the market cap is about $18.9m, normalise for cash & debt & EV is around $16m. I think they are capable of earning nearly $4m in 2015 with the ARTE acquisition and the growth rates are quite explosive.

4x EV is extraordinarily cheap for a cashed up company that looks set to grow revenues and earnings rapidly. Directors underwrote the recent capital raising, so they have real skin in the game (which I like).

The smart part about their play is that they are targeting the segment of population with no access to bank accounts or credit cards. So this neatly sidesteps Apple and Google. I suppose one possible threat is the telco’s withdrawing support. This is mitigated to a certain extent if ICU could keep building their content. Both telco and ICU benefits from increasing ARPU, so at least their interests are aligned.

DNA spent nearly $9m for iSentric. iSentric bought Arte for $18m. 2 years of growth later, a combined purchase value of $27m is now worth $16m EV on the ASX.

When I look at them its hard to find much info because its a reverse listing and the history is just not there in the financials, some takeaways though, NVAVPS is 0.05c, with a current price of 14c that means they are not a bargain in the old Graham sense of NVAV or net/net - but then nearly nothing is!

I cant see where Tony sees 4m NPAT this year, 1/2yr revenue is 4m roughly so lets call it 10m for the year with strong growth, costs would have to be around $5m and opex $1m and even without D&A or tax backed out that means a total of $4m. Maybe he sees more increase in revenue than that, because I cant see costs being a lot less.

Even if we accept a much lower figure, say $2m NPAT, thats still an EV/E of 8 which makes it very cheap by that metric alone. Although I think the EV will be a bit more than the 16m he postulates because they will burn some of the cash in that time which will mean it rises a bit, but that wont have a material effect on the ratio.

Much as I am tempted to have a punt on this company, I simply dont have any capital available at the moment to allocate to it. I think it could only be a small allocation as there is significant risk attached to this investment, no track record of profitability, untested business model, developing market, no income stream etc.

My prediction is that its next announcement will show the company is profitable and the price will reflect this within 12 months. Based on EPS using a NPAT of $2m i get an IV of around $1.

Tony and I were both completely wrong on this one, even Mr Market was too optimistic, profit completely evapourated, to be about $20K - rather than $4m or $2m or even $250k. It was always risky but didnt see this train wreck coming! Guess I will hold to see if they can pump the tyres up and get it moving. Still cant quite see where i went wrong to such an extent??? 21/9/15

OK did some more analysis of the AR and emailed tony with my thoughts, "It seems to me that basically I grossly underestimated the costs associated with the transition to a new business and was overly optimistic about an increase in profitability in the available time frame.

Now my thoughts have turned to increasing my holdings in ICU, I think its been oversold at current prices and my rough calculations suggest things could improve considerably this year. It would also allow me to average down which will certainly help my position if the price does turn around.

Looking at the Annual Report and backing out the “non-recurring” items of roughly $1m I get a NPAT of about $850K, now while that might be well under the $2m+ we had expected, its still a reasonable return on current equity valuation - a multiple of about 13.

NPAT should improve drastically as the benefits of the new entity flow through the full year, as long as the one off, non-recurring costs and write downs are completed!
"


Ok, ICU released an update this week, 6/10/15 - on track for $3m EBITDA, so maybe $2m NPAT, jumped over 100% on the news!

If they only manage $1m NPAT it would mean an IV based on EPS of around 50c and if Tony is right and its $4m then it will be around $2.00

Some very crude FCFE analysis gives me an IV of about 50c based on NPAT of $2m

Invert, invert always invert, says Munger, so Mr Market thinks ICU is worth 14c, leaving my usual growth rates in the formula it suggests an eps or 0.8c in Mr Market's valuation, which translates to a NPAT of $250K.

SO Mr Market thinks that based on all the available information, NPAT of $250K is the likely outcome for this company currently. Another possible inversion is that the market expects FCFE similar to my calculation, but is attaching a Risk Free Rate of 15% to the company.

This is more plausible to me, accept the likely earnings, but apply a much higher discount rate due to the risk.

All in all a pretty compelling buy! I will have to think some more about how and where to free up capital for this opportunity.

Aug 16 Well better late than never, ICU had a much better year and delivered over $2m NPAT, trading at about 5.5 x for EV/E looks like its turned the corner. Market hasnt really reacted much yet.

The other companies on the top of my watch list are TRG Tassal Group and ICS a medical software company.

TRG are at near 52 week lows, no doubt the combination of concern about potential restrictions due to investigation of environmental concerns and also the report from HUO about the impact of Norwegian Salmon dumping on the Australian market due to russian boycotts has had this impact.

Again inverting, the current share price suggests the market has either revalued the growth, risk or earnings - one would imagine its the earnings and or growth, and the price suggests a 30% hit to earnings. The notice from HUO suggested the likely impact for them will be 20% hit to earnings so there may be some over reaction in the market. Although +/- 10% is hardly significant.

Interestingly the following article points out the ban will likely end in August! http://www.seafoodsource.com/all-commentary/27645-norway-s-seafood-exports-unscathed-by-russia-s-trade-ban

Still, I think at around $3.20 I am keen to be a buyer.

My prediction is that neither the environmental issues or the norwegian imports will prove to have as much impact as Mr Market has priced in, so i would expect that once the financials for the 2nd half are released the price will recover to around $3-50-$4.00. Its quite possible the dividends will not be impacted at all.

Seems my prediction was on the money this time, trading at $3.95 in a very soft market. Nice to get one right!

Worst case scenario is that both the enviromental issues and supply issues conspire to impact earnings more than i have predicted, the current price should give a buffer to one or the other, but not both. In the event of both risks turning to reality, I will have made a poor decision and capital will be at risk

ICS is fully valued now that its trading over  $1 and so it goes back on the watch list.

My pediction is there will not be much growth unless there is consistent good news on earnings growth

So that very good news on earnings growth came to fruition and they would have been a much better buy than ICU in hindsight! With the recent fall in the market i reckon they are cheap at $1.25 and i would love to have some free capital to allocate. 21/9/15

in looking at what I could sell to free up capital, the obvious contenders are BRG, RCG, RFG, CCP and ANZ.

ANZ I feel are pretty fully valued at current prices and any softening of the property bubble will have a negative impact, wouldnt mind waiting till they went ex div though, CCP when I revist them I think they have more value to be unlocked yet, RFG is much the same, the early figures on the mixed business are looking awfully strong, RCG probably need to take a clip at some point, another $15000 @ 70c coming in the CR - and they would be worth around $23k at current prices. (note - not quite, will get clipped on over subscription.)

BRG i suspect I paid pretty near fair value at the time I bought, I dont think there is a lot of upside left in them so they may be the best choice to divest.

So at this point strategy is to sell out of RCG to rebalance to $20K approx, and sell BRG to reinvest in TRG and ICU. There will be CGT implications with these trades as they have been held less than 12 months, but being in the SMSF it will still be low.

On thinking about it, better not to rebalance RCG at this point, $20k from BRG is enough to take initial stakes in both TRG & ICU. WHY DID I THINK THAT! must put reasons down. Reviewing it I think its better to rebalance RCG, when i went back and looked at all my research on BRG, yes I probably paid near fair value at the time, but they are still a company I want to own and they are a business i understand very well. Selling the excess of RCG provides enough capital to take a position on both TRG & ICU so that is the direction i will take.

I predict both growth and yield will be better from TRG & ICU than from continuing to hold BRG,
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 08:15:47 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2015, 12:04:54 PM »
Well things didnt quite work out as expected, tryed to sell down RCG yesterday but the price was very soft, very few buyers and most of them well below the last trade price. It opened at 1.07, and settled at 1.04 - but my offer to sell at 1.04 never looked like getting taken up. At the same time TGR was dropping, down about 4c to $3.16.

I tried again to get out of RCG at 1.035 but again the buyers just moved away from me. I reassessed the decision to sell RCG, I was either going to have to drop to 1.02 or so or else sell down something else.

Rather than sell down that low I instead sold down CCP, my position size was rather large on these due to accidently buying an extra parcel when i first bought them. So I sold down CCP so that I once again held a parcel of about $20K and used those funds to buy TGR & ICU.

Of course the market had moved against me the other way with TGR! An Investor briefing today was full of positivity and good news so the price had firmed to $3.22.

Now the real test is to measure the decision, i predict that the overall value of the TGR and ICU postions will grow faster in value than if I had left the capital in CCP.

7/16 funny to read the comments about RCG now, I had forgetten how bloody hard I tried to sell those shares!! Now the best performer in the SMSF by far, a triple bagger today as they hit $1.87. Thank fuck I couldnt find any sellers back then!!
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 09:03:52 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2015, 10:54:36 PM »
Ok, so revisiting the prediction above, I am actually wrong so far! TGR have performed well and the $7200 investment is now worth $8832, but the investment in ICU has droppd from an initial cost of $7180 to $3686 for  a combined value of $12518. Had I just held onto the CCP shares they would have dropped in value from $14248 to $13872 so as it stands the decison to sell some CCP and buy TGR and ICU has cast me $1354.

I will revist down the track, 5 months is a very short time to be reassessing the decision, hopefully the situation will improve!

This week I made a decision to transfer Sal & my tax returns into the SMSF, we got about $8866 in total and I decided that the best way to ensure we didnt just spend the money was to move it to the SMSF. I bought more UOS shares after deciding they were the company trading at the biggest discount to intrinsic value in my portfolio.

I predict that this investment will ensure growth in the value of this years tax returns in line with the UOS shareprice as well as an income stream from the dividends.

A good lesson in how fickle the markets are over shorter terms, just a week or so later and those CCP shares had dropped to what i paid for them, so parcel value, $11744 and the combined TGR & ICU holdings were worth $13469 which makes the decision look much better!!

And the lesson continues, ICU up 100% in 2 days on positive profit guidance, combined holdings now worth $19000

Update 20/4 TGR initial stake of 2236 shares now $8497, ICU now worth $7659 so total of $16156. The 1252 CCP I sold are now worth $9.94 for a total of $12445 so this decision seems to continue to be vindicated.

7/4 TGR $9279  ICU $5026 for $14305  CCP now $15562 so a little bit wrong at the moment! The better decision in hindsight would have been to put it all into TGR

5/8/16 TGR $9168 ICU $4069 for $14237 CCP now $19732 so $5000 down now. Looking more like I should have left the money in CCP, even had I only bought TGR they would be worth about $18400 so still worse off. This decision has flip flopped a few times so its really hard to come to a strong conclusion. The most consistent point seems to be that the real damage has been done by the stake in a speculative position with ICU - but of course another 6 months and that could turn around.

1/9/16 -this has really been an interesting comparison, little doubt now that just staying in CCP would have been the best of all results, they have taken off and the 1252 shares would now be worth $20500. TGR worth $9279 and ICU $5265 - as above, even had i only bought TGR I would still be down on hanging on to the CCP (  TGR - $18500 ) Lesson - dont sell shares in good companies to buy another good company - sell shares in bad companies!

Another year, oct 2017, still would have been better leaving the money in CCP.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 07:43:42 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2015, 04:53:35 PM »
Time to consider reinvestment of dividends options, we have about $5000 available to invest, I think I will keep $2000 aside as cash and invest the balance.

Options include increasing holdings in UOS as company trading at greatest discount to value

Increasing holdings in ICU in the expectation of a turnaround and averaging cost down

Increasing holdings in AHZ while price is low

Increasing holdings in SGH to average price down

Buy into ICS

Initial thoughts are that I really cant find any certainty about SGH's cash flow and my gut feeling is that they may not be off their fair value unless they can improve FCF.

I am reluctant to take another, small new position with ICS, i would probably feel more confident if I was closing another position, but i fell like I a already holding too many positions.

So investing more into UOS ensures an income from the investment, it also should have the most liklihood of capital improvement given that its trading at such a discount to value and NTA, on the other hand the opportunity to average down into ICU while increasing my position leaves me well positioned if as i expect this year sees a revaluation of the company based on the profit from the acquisition of Arte starting to flow though to the bottom line. Also an increasee in the holding in AHZ exposes me better to the upside once this company becomes profitable as I expect.

I currently hold $2000 worth of AHZ and $7200 of ICU (well thats what the stakes cost me.)


Increased my holding in AHZ by $2500

« Last Edit: October 03, 2015, 03:53:52 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2015, 04:11:06 PM »
Ok, I have another $3750 in dividends to reinvest. The question is where to allocate the funds.
The options to me seem to be all the previous options,
AHZ, SGH, ICU and ICS

Plus CCP which have fallen hard back to my original purchase price.

So thinking thru the options, AHZ now holding about $4000 which is close to my position sizing for a non divvy paying spec, SGH I still have concerns about as an investment full stop, although the greed side sees the biggest potential capital gain here. ICU I am also probably a little over size in my position given the speccy nature of the company, and ICS would require opening a position in a new company - something I have been reluctant to do.

Well i decided on increasing the holding in CCP and have chased the price for 2 days! Up from $9.38 back to $9.94 now! Not sure whether to chase any further or just bide my time.

On looking at my holdings further the other opportunity to increase stake is in DWS which has quite similar metrics to CCP, it has made a couple of small aquisitions this year, which if they pay off could see an increase in earnings and a resultant re-rating by the market.

I think i will sit on it overnight and make a call in the morning.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 11:40:02 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2016, 07:31:04 AM »
I realise that I have skipped the decision journal for some of the biggest decisions of my life - surrounding the work to win the NBN contract and all the decisions involved in that process! Lets hope at least mentally i fulfilled some of the process!

Anyway, some more dividends to consider investing, this time I realised there was another option - leave the dividends as cash because there may be investment opportunities that arise down the track that I need capital for. I actually made the decision to leave them as cash - and then of course the very next day an opportunity presents!

Tassal Group, TGR, the salmon producer released an announcement that I think the market completely misread, and hence the shares fell over 7% to $3.55 - and in fact were down as far as $3.46 during trading.

This is the body of the release,

Tassal rebalances sales channels to optimise returns
Tassal Group Limited (ASX: TGR) today announced that in line with its strategy to rebalance
sales channels and optimise returns, it has decided to withdraw its tenders for two domestic
retail supply contracts – Coles’ fresh Salmon Deli business and fresh Salmon to Simplot for
supply of packaged Salmon to Coles. The supply contracts for Coles fresh Salmon and Simplot
will finish on 4 June 2016 and 30 June 2016, respectively.
This decision was taken to ensure Tassal continues to generate sustainable returns moving
forward in light of warmer water impacting growing conditions for near term supply. As Tassal
is rebalancing its sales channels to maintain sustainable returns, this decision is not expected to
impact revenues and earnings going forward.
Tassal has had a long and enduring relationship with Coles. This relationship is not expected to
change, and Tassal will continue to supply a wide range of other Salmon and Seafood products
to Coles.
The domestic wholesale salmon market has had, and continues to have, supply restrictions and
increased pricing to ensure impacts from a warm summer can be mitigated. This provides
Tassal with the opportunity to redirect salmon production into other domestic markets to
optimise returns following completion of the above contracts.
The export market continues to present favourable conditions given supply shortages globally
that are expected to continue for the next two years, with increased pricing and a low Australian
dollar. Tassal will continue to utilise the export market to balance sales volumes in line with
optimising shareholder return.

The market has read it as firstly saying that TGR has issues with stock due to the warm weather and water temp, and secondly that this represents management lying to shareholders because when HUO notified the market of stock losses due to weather TGR replied that they were unaffected.

The release says the market has been affected, not the company. I think its a classic mis pricing by the market and as the situation clarifies the SP will recover.

Revisiting my valuation for TGR I believe they are cheap at $3.55 although my FCF valuations are a bit rubbery because of the CapEx and the impacts of the DeCosti acquisition. Overall I believe they are worth more than what I payed for my original holding of $3.22 which ws prior to DeCosti, and under the shadow of the senate enquiry and was pretty near the bottom of the market - I think the SP of around $3.50-60 is at least as cheap as $3.22 was at the time I bought the initial parcel.

If I am wrong and there is a significant issue that effects profit for TGR I still think the price is ok, EPS would have to drop from 34c to 20c for the IV to drop to the current price.

I predict that $3.55 will prove to be cheap and within 6 months the share price will rise to reflect the mis pricing by the market.

29/4/16 Well, it didnt take long, closed this week at $3.90

1/9/16 $4.15
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 08:25:57 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2016, 08:53:33 PM »
Didnt manage to fill my order totally for TGR before they made a strong retracement back up to $3.80.

Still have $4K or so to potentially reinvest.

Started looking at SMX, an IT company that has had a very large fall in SP and looks like it may be trading well below IV. I considered taking a position at around $1.66 today, my reservation is that my rough FCF IV based on the H1 figures is only $1.70. They had a pretty poor H1 and the business is in some form of transformation. My dilemma is if I wait until the good news come they will quickly recover, if i buy now and they are failing on their transformation then the price may fall a lot further.

Inverting, and asking why should I avoid this company, the financial fundamentals have been steadily falling the last few years and margins are slipping - combined with falling revenue thats not a good recipe. The market has hammered the SP over the last few years. The EPS this year is similar to 2006 - when the price was about the same.

Also inverting the share price and looking at what that might indicate for earnings, FCF simple calc would be about 7.6c ps  - about inline with 1H figures, EPS indicated would be around 10c - impossible given that 1H earnings were 10c, unless they make a 2H loss.

I think this one goes in the thread discussing companies I didnt buy!

8/16 Now up to $2.15 from the $1.70 I started looking at this one, failed to run the FY15 numbers in my spreadsheet - I suspect i would hold them had i done so!
« Last Edit: August 05, 2016, 10:32:02 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2016, 07:50:25 PM »
I ended up increasing my position in DDR, I had a lengthy internal battle with myself about the debt levels, everything else about the company is compelling but I wish they would do more to reduce the debt level. Dicker Data have fallen in recent weeks to what appears to be a cheap price on any metric. I played devils advocate at length in a thread on HotCopper, http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-fy2015-results-presentation.2725548/

I got in at $1.53 which has averaged down my holdings to $1.66

Ultimately I dont like adding new holdings to the portfolio unless the case is compelling - and it wasnt in SMX's case. So looking at existing holdings to build into, UOS is already a pretty big part of the portfolio, CCP is also built to about as much as I am comfortable with and the others are either in out of favour sectors or fully priced. So DDR it was, the binary option was SMX so my prediction is that DDR will likely perform better in the long term than SMX, with lower risk. Its possible SMX will outperform DDR if they can turn the business around, but there is a fair amount of risk that it wont turn around and it would have meant a new company in the portfolio - so lets see where these two head in the mid term.

Now a week later DDR are up to $1.70 - right for the wrong reasons, as soon as i bought DDR issued an announcement that 1st Q results were ahead of forecast by $1m - but SMX were up about 15% in the same week!!
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 10:59:29 AM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2016, 09:54:35 AM »
TGA reported profit impairment and downgrades this week, they appear to impact NPAT by about -30% and therefore EPS will reduce from around 21c to 14c.

Underlying NPAT would appear to basically be flat, which means EPS should return to around 20c and NPAT circa $30m next year, the current price of $1.40 seems very cheap on those metrics and the fall of 20% in the SP seems disproportionate to the long term impact of the downgrade.

To average down and take advantage of this potential mispricing I would need to sell another holding, considered options are selling SGN for a small profit and reinvesting in TGA or selling CAB at a larger loss and reinvesting in TGA.

Revisiting my analysis of CAB its worth so much more than its share price, cheap on every possible metric. The disruptive impact of UBER has smashed the price as has the regulatory changes, yet the company has not suffered anywhere near the impact the share price would suggest. I think it would be madness to sell at a loss.

SGN have recovered and with a review of operations and a merger with WPP they now look a lot more solid than when i took a punt on them originally, they pay a good dividend and are up to $1.07 from the $0.91 i paid. I am very reluctant to sell these to take the punt on averaging down into TGA.

I also have the UOS i bought to trade the +/- 5% in SP, if these can make it back to 50c while TGA are 'cheap' I may choose to swap over for a trade on TGA rather than averaging down.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 10:53:27 AM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2016, 08:28:00 PM »
Well still waiting for UOS to recover to a sell, on market at my buy price of 48c - I picked up the divvy of $520 anyway so would be happy with that exit and then buy TGA. Will see if Mr Market meets my price!

17/7/16 - managed to get back out of UOS for 48c. banked the profit of $520 and retored capital to bank.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2016, 05:01:10 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2016, 05:01:31 PM »
ICS This is a little company that has been on my watch list for quite a while, I am thinking about taking a position. Its currently trading at about $1.65 and I have a note on my scratch sheet to look at them again at anything below $1.70.

I suspect the price has suffered a bit from the fact that nearly all their revenue comes from the UK, and there will obviously be some short term currency impacts, but the business itself should be uneffected by whatever Brexit ends up looking like.

I like the fact that they have no debt, some cash and the core business is simple to understand and seems resilient.

Thinking about the risks, I guess someone else could develop better software and market share might shrink. The other risk is probably management doing something stupid - they have a bit of form! The most recent ones being the seemingly unecessary consolidation - about which KTP on the other forum, made the pithy observation, "211 million shares on issue was considered too large".
Too large for what? Are they counting them by hand?" Also the rather bemusing move into the edu sector - with a tiny investment of $250k. Didnt really make a lot of sense to me.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2016, 09:35:50 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2016, 05:03:23 PM »
Also decided to sell the last of my corporate bonds, discovered the bastards at FIIG are charging me a $30 per month fee - which have no memory of! Will add it to the cash postion in UBank.