Author Topic: Decision Journal  (Read 6654 times)

galumay

  • Administrator
  • nut
  • *****
  • Posts: 364
Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #75 on: October 29, 2019, 08:03:09 AM »
I sold about 66% of my DDR holdings last month after the share price hit $7.30, i believe this is so far beyond any value I can asign the business that it would be irresponsible to continue to hold such a large position in my portfolio. I still retain about 8000 shares so its still a reasonable position.

I have mainly distributed the realised capital into existing holdings in AER, SFC, SRG, PPH, KME & JYC.

My thinking was to increase the holding in AER to a more meaningful size as the execution appears to be on track, in the case of SRG it appeared to be the most undervalued of current positions, KME & JYC i had identified as accumulate targets following strong execution identified in the AR's, JYC i waited for a dip after it ran up, but KME I paid up for as I think the probability of it growing strongly is above 50% with only a 20% liklihood of underperformance.

SFC remains a very strong conviction and hence I increased postion size on some price weakness.

I also put a significant amount of capital into OMN which is a pure arbitrage play, the business is being wound up after the founder became very ill, and it is that rare circumstance of a net-net where the assets significantly outweigh the capitalisation. Shareholders should see a return in the order of 15% over 6 months. This is one of those rare situations where the upside is as near to 100% as possible and the downside is close to 0%.


galumay

  • Administrator
  • nut
  • *****
  • Posts: 364
Re: Decision Journal
« Reply #76 on: March 18, 2020, 01:34:46 PM »
So the world has changed, probably half our net worth has disappeared in the 2020 share market crash on the back of concerns about corona virus colliding with a vast bubble in world equity markets and basically zero fixed interest markets.

I have always considered our offset account as being our dry powder for such a drawdown, but its a damn difficult decision to implement, as I discussed with Tony recently,

Agree with your thoughts on using debt, I have been trying to think about what could go wrong with that strategy, first risk is CV outcome has maximum impact and this follows thru to falling dividends such that interest is not covered, and capital gains fail to materialise within the remaining 4 year term of the IO loan. So potentially we are left having to make interest and capital repayments on the loan going forward. By then I will be over 60 and if I had to come out of my lazy semi-retirement to get a job to manage those payments it may be difficult to get work. Also if things had played out in that way our super would still be significantly less than planned. So I think the worst case scenario is that we would be putting ourselves under financial stress right at the time of our lives when we would want it least of all!