Author Topic: Mental Models  (Read 2421 times)

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2017, 08:25:36 PM »
“If you wish to improve,” Epictetus [first-century Greek philosopher] once said, “be content to appear clueless or stupid in extraneous matters.”  One of the most powerful things we can do as a human being in our hyperconnected, 24/7 media world is say: “I don’t know.”  Or more provocatively, “I don’t care.”  Not about everything, of course – just most things.  Because most things don’t matter, and most news stories aren’t worth tracking. 

Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital, always worth reading. His Memos are a source of much wisdom, https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

A collection of quotes from a recent memo,

We have two classes of forecasters:  Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know.
 
                                                – John Kenneth Galbraith
 
 
No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.
 
                                                – Ian Wilson (former GE executive)
 
 
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable.
 
                                                – Peter Bernstein
 
 
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.
 
                                                – Warren Buffett
 
 
I never think of the future – it comes soon enough.
 
                                                – Albert Einstein

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2017, 09:07:06 AM »
Munger talking about biases and how they can be used positively, as in schools of medicine,

Watch one, do one, teach one.

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2017, 05:31:17 PM »
attached is a transcript from a podcast from Farnam Street founder, Shane Parrish and CEO of AngelList, Naval Ravikant.

It is seriously worth reading, especially his thoughts on education.

* Naval-Ravikant-TKP.pdf (248.62 kB - downloaded 1264 times.)
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 05:36:50 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2017, 05:54:45 PM »
The secret of science is that its propositions, it hyposthesis, its theories are all falsifiable, that is its possible to construct an experiment or observation or collect data to prove it incorrect.

A non scientific belief is a stated belief that is not falsifiable by experiment, observation or collection of data, it could be wrong or it could be right!

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2017, 07:38:58 PM »
today I had cause to reflect on confirmation bias and how pervasive it is, it came in my work, trying to resolve a conduit blockage between 2 pits where I was trying to pull in an NBN drop fibre.

The obvious path was the 100mm conduit, it had only one telstra fibre cable in it so it was the obvious conduit to pull my drop fibre in through. When I identified the location of the blockage I dug down to try to isolate the cause and hit a 35mm conduit, i couldnt work out what it was and why it was there - i also couldnt find the 100mm conduit so made the assuption that the 100mm had been reduced to 35mm for some reason. In the end I rang a Telecom Tim to come and have a look at the job and he pointed out that there was a 35mm exiting from the pit so the 100mm must be to one side or the other, once we dug around a  bit to one side we uncovered the 100mm conduit.

The question he asked that showed how i had been blinded by confirmation bias was "have you tried rodding thru the 35mm conduit" - i hadnt because I was so focussed on the big fat 100mm conduit with just one cable in it that I never considered that I might be able to jump across into the 35mm conduit and get a path through that way. I had already come from the pit with the multiport and into the next pit via the 100mm conduit, so i had confirmed it was the obvious path, and kept trying to use it. It might well have been a simple and quick solution if I had only been able to step back and take a 'wider' look at the options and consider the less favourable, smaller conduit.

As it turned out the 35mm was blocked as well - but without Tim's wider view I would never have even tried that option.

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2017, 08:23:32 PM »
The Ivy Lee Method: The Daily Routine Experts Recommend for Peak Productivity
By James Clear    |    Decision Making, Minimalism, Procrastination, Productivity
By 1918, Charles M. Schwab was one of the richest men in the world.

Schwab was the president of the Bethlehem Steel Corporation, the largest shipbuilder and the second-largest steel producer in America at the time. The famous inventor Thomas Edison once referred to Schwab as the “master hustler.” He was constantly seeking an edge over the competition.

One day in 1918, in his quest to increase the efficiency of his team and discover better ways to get things done, Schwab arranged a meeting with a highly-respected productivity consultant named Ivy Lee.

Lee was a successful businessman in his own right and is widely remembered as a pioneer in the field of public relations. As the story goes, Schwab brought Lee into his office and said, “Show me a way to get more things done.”

“Give me 15 minutes with each of your executives,” Lee replied.

“How much will it cost me,” Schwab asked.

“Nothing,” Lee said. “Unless it works. After three months, you can send me a check for whatever you feel it's worth to you.”

The Ivy Lee Method
During his 15 minutes with each executive, Lee explained his simple method for achieving peak productivity:

At the end of each work day, write down the six most important things you need to accomplish tomorrow. Do not write down more than six tasks.
Prioritize those six items in order of their true importance.
When you arrive tomorrow, concentrate only on the first task. Work until the first task is finished before moving on to the second task.
Approach the rest of your list in the same fashion. At the end of the day, move any unfinished items to a new list of six tasks for the following day.
Repeat this process every working day.
The strategy sounded simple, but Schwab and his executive team at Bethlehem Steel gave it a try. After three months, Schwab was so delighted with the progress his company had made that he called Lee into his office and wrote him a check for $25,000.

A $25,000 check written in 1918 is the equivalent of a $400,000 check in 2015.

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2017, 08:00:38 PM »

***YOU CAN NEVER PROVE SOMETHING IS TRUE, ONLY THAT ITS FALSE****

Think black swans, for thousands of years most humans only knew there were white swans, they could propose a theory that all swans were white but they couldnt prove it.

One sighting of a black swan by english explorers reaching Australia proved the theory false..

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2017, 08:34:25 PM »
An extension of this idea occoured to me that we teach kids absolute misinformation because of this failure to understand the scientific process.

Consider the example of number sequences, children are often asked in primary school maths to complete the "next 3 numbers" in a number sequence,

eg 1,5,6,11,17...... they are taught that the correct answer is 28, 45, 73. But what they should be taught is we cant know what the next 3 numbers are without knowing the rule that the sequence follows. The rule could be, n + n1, n1 + n2, n2 + n3 etc. and thats what the teachers and the students assume, but what if the rule is actually n<n1, n1<n2, n2<n3 etc ? then the answer could be 18, 19, 20 and still be correct! There will potentially be a rather large variety of rules that might be used and a very large number of correct answers.

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2017, 08:40:35 PM »
“when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.”

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2017, 07:39:38 PM »

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2018, 05:07:15 PM »
The best approach in life,

Strong views, weakly held,

That is we need conviction, but be able to recalibrate based on change.

...and..

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-most-complicated-simple-problems/
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 05:04:17 PM by galumay »

galumay

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Re: Mental Models
« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2018, 08:06:18 PM »
http://latticeworkinvesting.com/2018/04/06/peter-kaufman-on-the-multidisciplinary-approach-to-thinking/

So why is it important to be a multidisciplinary thinker? The answer comes from the Austrian philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein (link 1, 2, 3) who said, ‘To understand is to know what to do.’ Could there be anything that sounds simpler than that? And yet it’s a genius line, to understand is to know what to do. How many mistakes you make when you understand something? You don’t make any mistakes. Where do mistakes come from? They come from blind spots, a lack of understanding.

Albert Einstein once listed what he said were the five ascending levels of cognitive prowess.  So number 5 he said, at the very bottom, was smart. OK. That’s the lowest level of cognitive prowess is being smart. The next level up, level 4, is intelligent. Level 3, next up, is brilliant. Next level up, level 2 he said is genius. What? What’s higher than genius? Number one is simple.

..to quote Albert Einstein again. He said, ‘The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest.’ But that’s not all he said about compound interest. He not only said that it’s the most powerful force in the universe, he said it’s the greatest mathematical discovery of all time. He said it’s the eighth wonder of the world. And he said that those who understand it get paid by it and those who don’t pay for it.
Compounding - Dogged incremental constant progress over a very long time frame.

You have to be constant. How many people do you know that are constant and what they do? I know a couple. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Everybody wants to be rich like Warren Buffett Charlie Munger. I’m telling you how they got rich. They were constant. They were not intermittent.



Here’s your 22 second course in leadership. That’s all it takes. You don’t have to go to business school. You don’t need books. You don’t guest speakers. All you have to do, is take that list that’s in Emily’s head and every single other person in this room, every single other person in the whole world, has this list in their head. Trustworthy, principled, courageous, competent, loyal, kind, understanding, forgiving, unselfish. And in every single one of your interactions with others, be the list!  Remember how that puppy went all in? You do this with the other human beings you encounter in life. They’re all going all in and not because it’s your idea. Most people spend all day long trying to get other people like them. They do it wrong. You do this list, you won’t be able to keep the people away. Everybody’s going to want to attach to you. And be willing to do what? Just like them puppy, they’d be willing to die for you. Because you are what they’ve been looking for their whole lives. This is pretty profound isn’t it?

Now I’m going to tell you the strategy that dogs use. The dog’s to be very unhappy with me for telling you this. I’m ratting them out. So when your dog is in the backyard and he goes to the fence between your house and the next house and he talks to the dog next door, I’m going to tell you what he says, no one has ever divulged this before. You’re the first group to hear this. Your dog says to the dog next door, ‘Can you believe how easy it is to manipulate human beings and get them to do whatever you want them to do for you?’ And the dog next door goes, ‘I know it’s a piece of cake.’ And your dog says ‘Yeah. All you have to do is every single time they come home, you greet them at the door with the biggest unconditional show of attention that they’ve ever gotten in their whole life. And you only have to do it for like 15 seconds and then you can go back to doing whatever you were doing before and completely ignore them for the rest of the evening.’

However you do have to do this every single time they come home. And what will the person do? They’ll take care of them. They’ll do anything for this dog. OK?

All you have to do, if you want everything in life from everybody else, is first pay attention, listen to them, show them respect, give them meaning, satisfaction, and fulfillment. Convey to them that they matter to you. And show you love them. But you have to go first. And what are you going to get back. Mirrored reciprocation. Right? See how we tie this all together? The world so damn simple. It’s not complicated at all! Every single person on this planet is looking for the same thing. Now why is that we don’t act on these very simple things?

This is where the wisdom comes. You can walk into the elevator and you can do nothing. And what do you get 98 percent of the time if you walk into an elevator and you do nothing from that stranger in the elevator? Nothing. It’s mirrored reciprocation isn’t it? But what did you have to do? You have to go first. And you’re going to get back whatever you put out there.

 So what do you want to do? You want to go positive, you want to go first. What’s the obstacle? There’s a big obstacle. This is an economics club. Certainly you have all heard of Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics. Behavioral economics. And what did he win his Nobel Prize for? For answering the question, why would people not go positive and not go first when there’s a 98 percent chance you’re going to benefit from it, and only a 2 percent chance the person’s going to tell you to ‘screw off’ and you’re going to feel horrible, lose face, and all the rest of that. And that’s real. That’s why we don’t do it. He said there’s huge asymmetry between the standard human desire for gain and the standard human desire to avoid loss. Which one do you think’s more powerful? 98 percent versus 2!

Be what you want in others, mirrored reciprication, trustworthy, principled, and courageous, and competent, and kind, and loyal, and understanding, and forgiving, and unselfish.

There’s another proverb, it’s a Turkish Proverb. ‘No road is long with good company.’ The essence of life is to surround yourself, as continuously as you can, with good company.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 05:03:00 PM by galumay »

galumay

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