Author Topic: RFG  (Read 1199 times)

galumay

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RFG
« on: September 24, 2017, 08:09:06 PM »
2016/17 wasnt particularly kind to RFG and its become the target of shorters, but despite a few hiccups with the business I still see a considerable gap between price and value. My IV range is between about $4 and $5.30 with most pointing to the top end. SP is currently $4.32. This year will be critical to see if the business is transforming from the wrap up and organic growth can be created out of Hudson & the coffee. Will hold thru to low $5's at least.

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galumay

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Re: RFG
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 02:44:02 PM »
Another lesson learnt the hard way, equivicated about selling earlier but I think anchoring bias and not deep enough anlysis had me hodl on. I will pay a heavy price in this case. Company has been basically destroyed and it will be a long and hard road back from here. The only glimmer of hope is the wholesale business, everything else is fucked, bank covenants are a mediaeval tortue device! I cant see them being able to comply, so its almost certainly going to mean a dilutive CR at best and total annihilation at worst.

Before the trading halt they were around $2 - having watched them fall all the way from nearly $8 with an average cost of about $4.90.

I really have to get better at the sell side, this is about the 5th disaster like it, and more than half I was up by round 100% before the crash.

Time for some serious navel gazing. LEVERAGE is the enemy, I should have seen that.